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Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Apr 28, 2021


At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. This year I’m really late. So here are a hundred plus for 2021.

Rules: unless otherwise stated, all predictions are about what will be true on/by January 1, 2022. Some predictions about my personal life, or that refer to the personal lives of other people, have been redacted to protect their privacy. I’ve tried to avoid doing specific research or looking at prediction markets when I made these, though some of them I already knew what the markets said.

This isn’t about me being an expert on these topics and getting them exactly right, it’s about me calibrating my ability to tell how much I know about things and how certain I am. I’m also moving towards trying to learn to predict shorter-term and more specific events as they happen - you can see my log here.

1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%: 80%
2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year): 5%
3. Yang is New York mayor: 80%
4. Newsom recalled as CA governor: 5%
5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: 30%
6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket): 20%
7. Trump is allowed back on Twitter: 20%
8. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule: 70%
9. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war: 20%
10. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: 5%
11. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: 5%
12. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM: 40%
13. Prospera has at least 1000 residents: 30%