Mar 26, 2021
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/towards-a-bayesian-theory-of-willpower
I.
What is willpower?
Five years ago, I reviewed Baumeister and Tierney's book on the subject. They tentatively concluded it's a way of rationing brain glucose. But their key results have failed to replicate, and people who know more about...
Mar 26, 2021
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/more-antifragile-diversity-libertarianism
In yesterday's review of Antifragile, I tried to stick to something close to Taleb's own words. But here's how I eventually found myself understanding an important kind of antifragility.
Mar 25, 2021
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-antifragile
Nassim Taleb summarizes the thesis of Antifragile as:
Everything gains or loses from volatility. Fragility is what loses from volatility and uncertainty [and antifragility is what gains from it]. The glass on the table is short volatility.
The glass is...
Mar 24, 2021
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/adding-my-data-point-to-the-discussion
[warning: boring inside baseball post]
From The Hypothesis: Here's Why Substack's Scam Worked So Well. It summarizes a common Twitter argument that Substack is doing something sinister by offering some writers big advances. The sinister...
Mar 20, 2021
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-new-sultan
I.
If you only learn one thing from this post: it's pronounced "air-do-wan".
If you learn two things from this post, learn that, plus how a country which starts out as a flawed but somewhat-liberal democracy can lapse into near-dictatorship over the...