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Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Jan 26, 2022


At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. Here are 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020.

And here are the predictions I made for 2021 (in April; I was really late). Bolded statements happened, italicized statements did not happen (as of 1/1/22). Neither-bold-nor-italic resolved ambiguous.

We have a debate every year over whether 50% predictions are meaningful in this paradigm; feel free to continue it.

1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent: 80%
2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year): 5%
3. Yang is New York mayor: 80%
4. Newsom recalled as CA governor: 5%
5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: 30%
6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket): 20%
7. Trump is allowed back on Twitter: 20%
8. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule: 70%
9. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war: 20%