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Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Mar 22, 2022


Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post March 14:

  1. Will Kiev fall to Russian forces by April 2022?: 14% —→ 2%

  2. Will at least three of six big cities fall by June 1?: 70% —→ 53%

  3. Will World War III happen before 2050?: 21% —→20%

  4. Will Russia invade any other country in 2022?: 10% —→7%

  5. Will Putin still be president of Russia next February?: 80% —→ 80%

  6. Will 50,000 civilians die in any single Ukrainian city?: 12% —→ 10%

  7. Will Zelinskyy no longer be President of Ukraine on 4/22?: 20% —→15%

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Insight Prediction: Still Alive, Somehow

Insight Prediction was a collaboration between a Russia-based founder and a group of Ukrainian developers. So, uh, they’ve had a tough few weeks.

But getting better! Their founder recently announced on Discord:

I myself am (was?) an American professor in Moscow. I have been allowed to teach my next course which starts in 10 days online, and so I am moving back to the US on Sunday, to Puerto Rico. Some of our development team is stuck in Ukraine. I've offered to move them to Puerto Rico, but it's not clear they'll be able to leave the country anytime soon. Progress with the site may be slow, but obviously that's not the most important thing now.


I am now out of Russia, and on to Almaty, Kazakhstan. The people here are quite anti-war. I fly to Dubai in a bit. It was surprisingly difficult (and expensive) to book a ticket out of Moscow after all the airspace closures.