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Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Dec 24, 2022

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Away with LiveJournal, and in with a new, sleeker-looking blog. A classier blog. A more mature blog. A blog where we’re not afraid to ask the big questions.

Questions like: did Abraham Lincoln sign a demonic pact with the ghost...

Dec 24, 2022

I saw this on Twitter the other day…

…and realized I had the data to fact-check it. On the 2020 SSC Survey, I asked many questions about mental health, plus this one:

For this analysis I defined an artificial category “very mentally...

Dec 24, 2022

"With a title like that, obviously I will be making a nitpicky technical point."

Related: Bounded Distrust, Moderation Is Different From Censorship


With a title like that, obviously I will be making a nitpicky technical point. I’ll start by making the...

Dec 22, 2022

This is a FAQ about prediction markets. I am a big proponent of them but have tried my hardest to keep it fair. For more information and other perspectives, see Wikipedia, the scholarly literature (eg here), and Zvi.

1. What are prediction markets?
2. Why...

Dec 20, 2022

Each winter, I make predictions about the year to come. The past few years, this has outgrown my blog, with other people including Zvi and Manifold (plus Sam and Eric’s contest version).

This year I’m making it official, with a 50-question...