Dec 31, 2021
[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight...
Dec 29, 2021
Thanks to everyone who participated in ACX Grants, whether as an applicant, an evaluator, or a funder.
Before I announce awardees, a caveat: this was hard in lots of ways I didn't expect. I got 656 applications addressing different problems and requiring different...
Dec 28, 2021
I found this YouTube explainer about prediction markets on the subreddit. It’s pretty good! My small nitpicks are that it overestimates their accuracy relative to traditional forecasters (it focuses on markets beating forecasters in 2008, but I...
Dec 24, 2021
The main highlight was an email I got from a reader who prefers to remain anonymous, linking me to Projecting The Transmission Dynamics Of SARS-CoV2. This paper is head and shoulders above anything I found during my own literature...
Dec 23, 2021
The day after I wrote The Phrase “No Evidence” Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication, FT published this article:
Like many uses of “no evidence”, they meant that one particular study of this complicated question had failed to reject the...