Apr 14, 2025
(see Wikipedia: The Purpose Of A System Is What It Does)
Consider the following claims
- The purpose of a cancer hospital is to cure two-thirds of cancer patients.
- The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to get stuck in a years-long stalemate with Russia.
- The purpose of the British government is to propose...
Apr 14, 2025
Here’s a list of things I updated on after working on the scenario.
Some of these are discussed in more detail in the supplements, including the compute forecast, timelines forecast, takeoff forecast, AI goals forecast, and security forecast. I’m highlighting these because it seems like a lot of people missed their...
Apr 14, 2025
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like.1 It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous...
Apr 14, 2025
Or maybe 2028, it's complicated
In 2021, a researcher named Daniel Kokotajlo published a blog post called “What 2026 Looks Like”, where he laid out what he thought would happen in AI over the next five years.
The world delights in thwarting would-be prophets. The sea of possibilities is too vast for anyone to ever...
Apr 14, 2025
In Ballad of the White Horse, G.K. Chesterton describes the Virgin Mary:
Her face was like an open word
When brave men speak and choose,
The very colours of her coat
Were better than good news.
Why the colors of her coat?
The medievals took their dyes very seriously. This was before modern chemistry, so you had to try...