Dec 23, 2021
The day after I wrote The Phrase “No Evidence” Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication, FT published this article:
Like many uses of “no evidence”, they meant that one particular study of this complicated question had failed to reject the null hypothesis.
Here’s what happened to Metaculus’ prediction tournament when the same study came out:
The consensus prediction dropped from 72% chance that it was less lethal, to 63% chance. But it quickly recovered, and is now up to 80%.
This is an unusually clear example of the difference between classical and Bayesian ways of thinking.